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Cold War-II Update

Top Russian spy defects after betraying U.S. ring

The head of Russia’s deep cover U.S. spying operations has betrayed the network and defected, a Russian paper said on Thursday, potentially giving the West one of its biggest intelligence coups since the end of the Cold War.

The newspaper, Kommersant, named the man as Colonel Shcherbakov, and said he was responsible for unmasking a Russian spy ring in the United States in June whose arrests humiliated Moscow and clouded a “reset” in ties with Washington.

The betrayal would make Shcherbakov one of the most senior turncoats since the fall of the Soviet Union and could have consequences for Russia’s proud Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) and its chief, former prime minister Mikhail Fradkov.

This sort of thing sounds like something from the 60’s or 70’s.

All the 10 spies arrested in the United States [as the result of Shcherbakov’s actions] pleaded guilty and were deported to Russia in a spy swap less than two weeks later.

Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, himself a former KGB spy, greeted them as heroes. He said traitors came to a bad end, and that the informer would be left to the mercy of his own kind. “The special services live by their own laws and everyone knows what these laws are,” he said.

Sounds like the defector will be needing witness protection on steroids.

Additional ramifications of the situation include re-integration of foreign intelligence efforts into the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) which is the successor to much of the old KGB, no doubt bringing a warm glow of satisfaction to Putin as he sees things moving back to the way things were in his “good old days”:

Despite Moscow’s tough talk, the revelation could damage the reputation of the SVR. Kommersant cited an unidentified source as saying that Fradkov could be sacked and the SVR folded into the powerful Federal Security Service (FSB), the main successor of the Soviet-era KGB.

China Watch, National Insecurity

Navy Brass Admit to ChiCom Threat

Admiral: China’s buildup aimed at power past Asia

The commander of U.S. military forces in the Pacific said Thursday that the buildup of Chinese armed forces is continuing “unabated” and Beijing’s goal appears to be power projection beyond Asia.

“China’s rapid and comprehensive transformation of its armed forces is affecting regional military balances and holds implications beyond the Asia-Pacific region,” said Adm. Robert F. Willard, the Pacific Command leader. “Of particular concern is that elements of China’s military modernization appear designed to challenge our freedom of action in the region.”

The comments in testimony to the House Armed Services Committee are likely to fuel an ongoing debate inside the U.S. government among military, policy and intelligence officials over whether China’s military buildup is limited to a future conflict with Taiwan or whether China harbors global military ambitions.

Uh…just a hint: the ChiComs don’t require aircraft carriers and long-range anti-ship missiles to deal with Taiwan if they decide to pull that trigger.

China Watch, National Insecurity

Cold War-II China Updates

From the London Telegraph:

Is China’s Politburo spoiling for a showdown with America?

The long-simmering clash between the world’s two great powers is coming to a head, with dangerous implications for the international system.

China has succumbed to hubris. It has mistaken the soft diplomacy of Barack Obama for weakness, mistaken the US credit crisis for decline, and mistaken its own mercantilist bubble for ascendancy. There are echoes of Anglo-German spats before the First World War, when Wilhelmine Berlin so badly misjudged the strategic balance of power and over-played its hand.

There are a lot more gory details in the piece…it’s not cheerful reading.

A part of the overall problem is this:

China opposes US and EU demands for yuan revaluation

Premier Wen Jiabao made it clear during a press conference marking the end of the country’s parliamentary meetings that he did not think the yuan was undervalued and blamed the US for the deterioration in relations between the two superpowers.

He made a renewed call for the US to take concrete action to reassure investors about the security of the dollar, declaring he was still worried about China’s considerable holdings of US Treasury securities, currently standing at just under $900bn (£596bn).

The premier’s comments offered little comfort for US President Barack Obama as he considers growing demands from US businesses and unions to impose trade sanctions against cheap Chinese products. He has urged China to adopt a more “market related exchange rate” and is considering whether to go a stage further and name China as a “currency manipulator.”

An increase in tension has been fuelled by US arms sales to Taiwan and the visit of the Dalai Lama, the exiled Tibetan leader, to Washington along with the attacks on Google which has threatened to withdraw from China unless it can be assured it can run its search engine without interference.

There had been hopes that Premier Wen’s press conference, the Chinese leadership’s traditional platform for sending coded signals to the rest of the world about policy shifts, would provide some pointers to change but economists saw no sign of any movement on the crucial currency question.

So far the deterioration in relations has been reflected by an increase in the level of rhetoric but economists fear President Obama may be forced into tougher action.

Stay tuned.

China Watch, National Insecurity

“Here’s the New Boss, Same as the Old Boss”

Russia’s Leaders See China as Template for Ruling

Nearly two decades after the collapse of the Communist Party, Russia’s rulers have hit upon a model for future success: the Communist Party.

Or at least, the one that reigns next door.

Like an envious underachiever, Vladimir V. Putin’s party, United Russia, is increasingly examining how it can emulate the Chinese Communist Party, especially its skill in shepherding China through the financial crisis relatively unbowed.

United Russia’s leaders even convened a special meeting this month with senior Chinese Communist Party officials to hear firsthand how they wield power.

18russia.big

In the words of Rod Stewart:  “Every picture tells a story, don’t it?”

A police state is a police state – whether you call it the “Communist Party of (insert country here)”, “United Russia”, or the “National Socialist German Workers Party”, it’s just different sides of the same coin.

China Watch, National Insecurity

B.O. Middle East Disarray

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The B.O. administration seems unable to get itself organized in the middle east, with the resulting development of serious economic consequences, as illustrated by the unfortunate pattern of the following articles found online today…as contradictory as they are.

White House angry at General Stanley McChrystal speech on Afghanistan

At the time that General McChrystal was appointed, B.O. pledged to take care of the needs of the force as communicated by the commanding general…that WOULD be McCrystal. Ooops! When he says something that B.O. doesn’t want to hear, it’s a different story. Support for the war apparently only goes so far now that the election is over.

According to sources close to the administration, Gen McChrystal shocked and angered presidential advisers with the bluntness of a speech given in London last week.

Truth is a bitch!

The next day he was summoned to an awkward 25-minute face-to-face meeting on board Air Force One on the tarmac in Copenhagen, where the president had arrived to tout Chicago’s unsuccessful Olympic bid. In an apparent rebuke to the commander, Robert Gates, the Defence Secretary, said: “It is imperative that all of us taking part in these deliberations, civilians and military alike, provide our best advice to the president, candidly but privately.”

This ignores the situation that McChrystal’s requests were made weeks ago, with hardly a “Howdy do?”  In reply. B.O. doesn’t seem able to realize that military combat doesn’t operate according to the whims of his attention…or rather, inattention.

Less than perfect decisive action is generally better than no action at all, which has been the White House pattern of late.

If there was an incipient plan to cut out and abandon the effort (without commenting on the merits of THAT), then there MAY be some rationale to the non-response from Washington, but…that’s NOT what they are insisting:

White House: Leaving Afghanistan not an option

The White House said Monday that President Barack Obama is not considering a strategy for Afghanistan that would withdraw U.S. troops from the eroding war there. White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said that walking away isn’t a viable option to deal with a war that is about to enter its ninth year. “I don’t think we have the option to leave. That’s quite clear,” Gibbs said.

If that’s really the case, not to put a fine point to it, then it’s past time for B.O. to s–t or get off the pot!

In addition, to completely have two opposite trends at the same time, comes SECDEF Gates

Taliban Afghan momentum due to lack of U.S. troops

The Taliban has the momentum in Afghanistan now because of the inability of the United States and its allies to put enough troops into the country, U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said on Monday.

HUH?

Firstly, Gates essentially is agreeing with McChrystal that we do not have enough troops in-country to successfully do the job: so now both the Commanding General AND the Secretary of Defense apparently don’t buy into B.O.’s pusillanimous inaction.

Secondly, is the United States Secretary of Defense REALLY saying that this is due to the “INABILITY of the United States and its allies to put enough troops into the country” [emphasis added]?  We are UNABLE to carry out a policy that would enable winning the war in Afghanistan?

Anyone else remember B.O. proclaiming that AFGHANISTAN was the “central front” of the war on Islamoterrs, in contrast to Iraq? Apparently that was then (campaign mode) and this is now (Administration mode).

However it plays out, our allies and so-called allies are betting that the United States uner B.O. is a paper tiger, so they are getting together behind our back and planning to slip it to us financially and economically, apparently with no fear of possible effective response:

The demise of the dollar

In the most profound financial change in recent Middle East history, Gulf Arabs are planning – along with China, Russia, Japan and France – to end dollar dealings for oil, moving instead to a basket of currencies including the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan, the euro, gold and a new, unified currency planned for nations in the Gulf Co-operation Council, including Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Qatar. Secret meetings have already been held by finance ministers and central bank governors in Russia, China, Japan and Brazil to work on the scheme, which will mean that oil will no longer be priced in dollars.

The plans, confirmed to The Independent by both Gulf Arab and Chinese banking sources in Hong Kong, may help to explain the sudden rise in gold prices, but it also augurs an extraordinary transition from dollar markets within nine years.

Our reaction thus far is in any practical sense, ineffectual, as we slip towards an expansion of Cold War II.

The Americans, who are aware the meetings have taken place – although they have not discovered the details – are sure to fight this international cabal which will include hitherto loyal allies Japan and the Gulf Arabs. Against the background to these currency meetings, Sun Bigan, China’s former special envoy to the Middle East, has warned there is a risk of deepening divisions between China and the US over influence and oil in the Middle East. “Bilateral quarrels and clashes are unavoidable,” he told the Asia and Africa Review. “We cannot lower vigilance against hostility in the Middle East over energy interests and security.”

This sounds like a dangerous prediction of a future economic war between the US and China over Middle East oil…

God help us…we’ll need it if we don’t start to get our sh… er… stuff together.

Defense Matters!, National Insecurity, Obamunism

B.O. Rolled by Putin on Missile Defense

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Given what any thinking person knows about B.O.’s history, associations, and evident ideological orientation, this is no surprise, but nevertheless is still regretable.

U.S. Shelves Nuclear-Missile Shield

The White House will shelve Bush administration plans to build a missile-defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic, a move likely to cheer Moscow and roil the security debate in Europe.

Pentagon spokesman Geoff Morrell confirmed Thursday that a “major adjustment” is planned and said the decision was made to better protect U.S. forces and allies in Europe from Iranian missile attacks.

Let me try to parse this: we are canceling missile defense sites to better protect us and our allies from Iranian missiles…HUH? Logic check anyone?

The U.S. is basing its move on a determination that Iran’s long-range-missile program hasn’t progressed as rapidly as previously estimated, reducing the threat to the continental U.S. and major European capitals, according to current and former U.S. officials.

At least until the next Korean or bootleg Russian shipment makes port…

Now at least the Russians will play nicer though, right?

Russia on Thursday welcomed the news but said it saw no reason to offer concessions in return….”The Bush plans on the missile defense as we knew them until now were nothing more than a provocation of security in the European region,” said Dmitry Rogozin, Russia’s ambassador to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, in a phone interview.

So, from their point of view, the U.S. has been a paper tiger all along…and B.O. has now officially confirmed this to be the case.

Meanwhile…what about the other Euro allies left swinging in the breeze?

Anger in Europe as Barack Obama ‘scraps missile defence shield’

The Wall Street Journal reported that the US is to shelve the plan, which was first mooted by the Bush administration and has been a source of friction with Russia ever since.

The move would be a cause of celebration in Moscow but of real concern to Eastern European countries which have looked to Washington for support against their former imperial master Russia. The US has said the shield is to guard against attacks by rogue states, such as Iran.

The former Czech prime minister, Mirek Topolanek, said: “This is not good news for the Czech state, for Czech freedom and independence. It puts us in a position wherein we are not firmly anchored in terms of partnership, security and alliance, and that’s a certain threat.”

Not good for the U.S. and the west, as noted in the Brit press:

Barack Obama surrenders to Russia on Missile Defence

I blogged a couple of weeks ago that the Obama administration was about to abandon its plans for Third Site missile defence installations in Poland and the Czech Republic. I wrote then that “if enacted, this would represent a huge turnaround in American strategic thinking on a global missile defence system, and a massive betrayal of two key US allies in eastern and central Europe. Such a move would significantly weaken America’s ability to combat the growing threat posed by Iran’s ballistic missile program, and would hand a major propaganda victory to the Russians.”

It now looks as though the president has surrendered to Russian demands to kill off Third Site.

After noting some more about the details of B.O.’s capitulation to the will of the the ex-KGB enforcer Putin, the real kernal of this all is summed up thusly:

This is bad news for all who care about the US commitment to the transatlantic alliance and the defence of Europe as well as the United States. It represents the appalling appeasement of Russian aggression and a willingness to sacrifice American allies on the altar of political expediency. A deal with the Russians to cancel missile defence installations sends a clear message that even Washington can be intimidated by the Russian bear.

What signal does this send to Ukraine, Georgia and a host of other former Soviet satellites who look to America and NATO for protection from their powerful neighbour? The impending cancellation of Third Site is a shameful abandonment of America’s friends in eastern and central Europe, and a slap in the face for those who actually believed a key agreement with Washington was worth the paper it was written on.

B.O.’s foriegn policy looks more and more like Carter’s 2nd term.

Defense Matters!, National Insecurity

What, me worry?

A tale of two cities:

WASHINGTON, D.C.:  Negotiates with North Korea; first informally via sending Bubba hisself to render proper obeisance, and then following it up with further contacts. reflecting general attitude of “What, me worry?”

obama-mad-magazine-cover.jpg

MOSCOW, RUSSIAN FEDERATION:  Altogether a different response to the same nation:

Russia deploys missile defence system near N.Korea

Russia has deployed a missile defence system near its border with North Korea and is studying other measures to protect its population from stray missiles, Russia’s top general said on Wednesday.

Russia shares a small border with North Korea in the Far East and its main Pacific port of Vladivostok, with a population of 600,000, lies only 150 km (95 miles) from North Korea….

“We are definitely concerned by the conditions under which tests are being carried out in North Korea, including nuclear devices,” the chief of Russia’s general staff Nikolai Makarov told journalists in the Mongolian capital Ulan Bator.

If even Putin worries about the NorKs, perhaps we ought to have some concern too? Just a thought…

(Hmmmm. ANOTHER pesky thought…isn’t this the same thing (antimissile defense) that Putin was crying about when WE planned deployment?)

National Insecurity

B.O.: Foriegn Policy? What’s That?

Obama Flunks First Tests On Foreign Policy

The Biden prophecy has come to pass. Our wacky veep, momentarily inspired, had predicted last October that “it will not be six months before the world tests Barack Obama.” Biden probably had in mind an eve-of-the-apocalypse drama like the Cuban Missile Crisis. Instead, Obama’s challenges have come in smaller bites. Some are deliberate threats to U.S. interests, others mere probes to ascertain whether the new president has any spine.

Preliminary X-rays aren’t encouraging. Consider the long list of brazen Russian provocations:

(a) Pressuring Kyrgyzstan to shut down the U.S. air base in Manas, an absolutely crucial NATO conduit into Afghanistan.

(b) Announcing the formation of a “rapid reaction force” with six former Soviet republics, a regional Russian-led strike force meant to reassert Russian hegemony in the Muslim belt north of Afghanistan.

(c) Planning to establish a Black Sea naval base in Georgia’s breakaway province of Abkhazia, conquered by Moscow last summer.

(d) Declaring Russia’s intention to deploy offensive Iskander missiles in Kaliningrad if Poland and the Czech Republic go ahead with plans to station an American (anti-Iranian) missile defense system.

There are more gory details concerning the consequences of these situations: it ain’t that pretty at all!

But wait! There’s more!

New U.S. Diplomacy Getting No Respect

President Barack Obama’s first TV interview was with the Dubai-based, partly Saudi-funded Al Arabiya satellite channel. In passing, he faulted past American policy for too readily “dictating” in the Middle East. He had better things to say about Saudi King Abdullah’s “courage” in trying to solve the Middle East crisis.

Vice President Joe Biden likewise has promised the world a sharp break from the prior Bush administration that, from his references, was apparently to blame for bouts of anti-Americanism abroad. He assured the Europeans at the Munich Security Conference that it was time to press the reset button in foreign policy, and pledged a new chapter in America’s overseas relations.

On her initial tour abroad, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton re-emphasized the Obama and Biden message, announcing that she would follow an approach that “values what others have to say.” And then Clinton elaborated on this now well-worn “blame Bush” theme: “Too often in the recent past, our government has acted reflexively before considering available facts and evidence or hearing the perspectives of others.” America, Clinton promised, from now on would be “neither impulsive nor ideological.”

Contrast such admirable talk with events:

North Korea has just announced that it plans to launch a new Taepodong-2 missile capable of reaching the United States.

China, which holds hundreds of billions of dollars in U.S. Treasury bonds and will be asked to loan us billions more, advised the Obama administration to drop the “buy American” talk in the new Democratic stimulus program.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad recently bragged that his country would soon go nuclear, and that President Obama’s offer to talk without preconditions revealed a new passivity in the West.

Russia just announced it had developed new strategic ties with Iran, and warned that American-sponsored missile defense for Eastern Europe was unpalatable.

About the same time, the former Soviet republic of Kyrgyzstan, on Russian advice, disclosed that it may no longer allow Americans to use a base in the country to supply the war effort in Afghanistan.

Pakistan just released from house arrest A.Q. Khan, the father of the Pakistani nuclear bomb, who had sold nuclear technologies to the likes of Libya and North Korea.

All of which points to what can only be described as a lack of situational awareness.

In simpler terms, B.O. and company are clueless in foreign affairs.

National Insecurity

Cold War II – Med Sea Front Established

From Syrian fishing port to naval power base: Russia moves into the Mediterranean

The Chief remembers his time in the late 60’s on active duty aboard USS Sellers (DDG-11) with the 6th Fleet in the Mediterranean. A significant part of our time was watching, and being watched by Soviet naval and air forces based in Russia-friendly places like Egypt, Libya, and,…Syria. Looks like some of those same circumstances are re-organizing in the (allegedly) post-Soviet Russia, and old buddy Syria.

Tartous is being dredged and renovated to provide a permanent facility for the Russian navy, giving Moscow a key military foothold in the Mediterranean at a time when Russia’s invasion of Georgia has led to fears of a new cold war.

Fears of a new cold war? Uh, situational awareness dictates that “fears of a new cold war” are way behind the curve. Historically, it was a pattern of assertive and at times confrontational behavior that marked the start of Cold War I, which was formally recognized by Churchill’s famous “Iron Curtain” speech at Fulton, Missouri’s Westminster College in 1946. By the way, it’s STILL worth reading…and makes the Chief wonder where the West might be able to find another Churchill…but I digress.

The bolstering of military ties between Russia and Syria has also worried Israel, whose prime minister, Ehud Olmert, was in Moscow yesterday seeking to persuade the Russian president, Dmitry Medvedev, to stop Russian arms sales to Syria and Iran. Mr Olmert later said he had received assurances that Russia would not allow Israel’s security to be threatened, but offered no indication he won any concrete promises on Russian arms sales.

Igor Belyaev, Russia’s charge d’affaires in Damascus, recently told reporters that his country would increase its presence in the Mediterranean and that “Russian vessels will be visiting Syria and other friendly ports more frequently”.

That announcement followed a meeting between Medvedev and the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, at the Black sea port of Sochi in the immediate aftermath of Russia’s victory over Georgian forces and its recognition of the breakaway provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia – actions Assad supported.

The bolstering of military ties between Russia and Syria has also worried Israel, whose prime minister, Ehud Olmert, was in Moscow yesterday seeking to persuade the Russian president, Dmitry Medvedev, to stop Russian arms sales to Syria and Iran. Mr Olmert later said he had received assurances that Russia would not allow Israel’s security to be threatened, but offered no indication he won any concrete promises on Russian arms sales.

The Chief is a great believer in the principle that “If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, and has white feathers and a flat bill, then it MUST be a duck.” It looks enough like the first one, so as far as the Chief is concerned, it IS in fact Cold War II.