Tag Archives: Business/Econ.

Recession Hits Home

SD November jobless rate: 3.4 percent

South Dakota, with a November unemployment rate of 3.4 percent, has been in a recession since December 2007, according to Ralph Brown, University of South Dakota economics professor emeritus.

The economic decline should at least slow during the second half of 2009 if not recover, Brown said. The most recent long recessions – in 1973-75 and 1981-82 – both lasted 16 months.

The state Labor Department reports 15,055 South Dakotans were out of work in November out of a labor force of 446,045. October’s statewide unemployment rate was 3.2 percent.

Meanwhile, Sioux Falls, and Brookings seem to be beating the overall SD conditions, but not quite so well out in the Hills:

November jobless rates for South Dakota cities included 2.2 percent in Brookings, 2.4 percent in Vermillion and Aberdeen, 2.5 percent in Huron and Pierre, 2.9 percent in Mitchell, 3 percent in Sioux Falls, 3.1 percent in Watertown, 3.3 percent in Yankton, and 3.6 percent in Rapid City and Spearfish.

It sure beats the situation in Detroit, and other bigger cities.

Not Only Detroit…

News fom across the pond. Looks like the “Big 3″ aren’t the only ones with a problem.

Jaguar Land Rover claims car industry crisis is ‘national emergency’ for UK

The boss of Jaguar Land Rover has claimed that the UK car industry is facing a “national emergency” as new figures showed that production tumbled by a third last month.

It’ll be very interesting to compare and contrast how the Brits deal with this one, after watching the fecklessness of both Congress and the administration.

Transparency vs. Golden Rule

Fed Defies Transparency Aim in Refusal to Disclose

The Federal Reserve is refusing to identify the recipients of almost $2 trillion of emergency loans from American taxpayers or the troubled assets the central bank is accepting as collateral.

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said in September they would comply with congressional demands for transparency in a $700 billion bailout of the banking system. Two months later, as the Fed lends far more than that in separate rescue programs that didn’t require approval by Congress, Americans have no idea where their money is going or what securities the banks are pledging in return.

Looks like the Golden Rule wins: “THOSE WHO HAVE THE GOLD, MAKE THE RULES.”

The REAL Deal, & It ain’t Biden’s!

After VP-elect Biden’s admonistion to “Be patriotic, get with the deal” and pay more taxes, this is truly instructive:

It’s Not Taxpayers, But Tax Takers Who Aren’t Doing Their Fair Share

Since the war on terror began in 2001, Washington has sounded an intermittent drumbeat for the wealthy to make a greater “sacrifice” in the form of higher taxes. The dubious charge is that these taxpayers have been shirking a duty performed in other conflicts.
America is not undertaxed. Washington is overspent — but not as a result of the current conflict. The sacrifice truly called for is on the spending side. And it would not have to be large.

Last year’s federal deficit was $161 billion. As large as it sounds in nominal terms, it was 1.2% of GDP and just 5.9% of total federal spending. Less than a 6% cut in spending would have eliminated the federal deficit.

So the next time the call for “sacrifice” comes from Washington, America’s response should be: Lead by example.
The accusation bears reviewing, and its inaccuracy needs to be refuted. An examination of the previous three wartime periods undercuts the argument that the tax burden is comparatively low and being avoided by the wealthy.

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After going through a specific factual analysis of these figures, a conclusion is inevitable:

In sum, an analysis of comparable economic impact shows Washington today is taking a higher level of income taxes with a greater focus on upper-income groups. At the same time, it has increased overall spending to its highest post-WWII level and decreased defense spending to its lowest level since before WWII.

Washington’s talk of “sacrifice” is no more than a stalking horse in the left’s hunt for higher taxes. This call for higher taxes is not so much about funding the war against terrorism as it is about the left’s desire to use the tax code to redistribute income.

Dang! There’s that income redistribution thing again. A pretty widespread and consistent pattern for those who are oh-so-quick to deny any Marxian influence.

The contrast between taxes and spending during the current and past three conflicts could not be starker. And it could not demonstrate more clearly the left’s divergent view of taxes. It differs fundamentally from the rest of America’s.

For most, taxes are a necessary evil as disagreeable and inevitable as death. For the left, they are a good to be pursued, a means to an end. Not simply needed to expand government, they are sought to smooth the perceived inequities arising from a market economy’s distribution of wealth.

Washington’s call for “sacrifice” therefore rings hollow on every front.

How hollow? VERY!

America is not undertaxed. Washington is overspent — but not as a result of the current conflict. The sacrifice truly called for is on the spending side. And it would not have to be large.

Last year’s federal deficit was $161 billion. As large as it sounds in nominal terms, it was 1.2% of GDP and just 5.9% of total federal spending. Less than a 6% cut in spending would have eliminated the federal deficit.

So the next time the call for “sacrifice” comes from Washington, America’s response should be: Lead by example. (Emphasis added)

Oh well. This sure as hell isn’t what’s going to happen with the B.O. administration…but it’ll make grist for the mill IF some GOP’ers discover some cojones and return to the example of the one and only Gipper, Ronaldus Magnus.

Governmental Greed Unlimited

Two instances recently where the government, in the form of Congress, is casting about, desperately searching for ever-more sources of money to latch on to, in spite of (or perhabs BECAUSE of) its demonstrated inability to account for what it already spends. As the first of these pieces notes, this is in keeping with “Sutton’s Law” – interesting that one of the best comparisons to make of Congress is with a bank robber.

Willie Sutton Goes to Harvard
By George F. Will

Washington is having a Willie Sutton Moment. Such moments occur when government, finding its revenue insufficient for its agenda, glimpses some money it does not control but would like to.

Sen. Charles Grassley (R-Iowa) and Rep. Peter Welch (D-Vt.) recently convened a discussion of how colleges and universities should be spending their endowments. Grassley, who says more than 135 institutions each have endowments of more than $500 million, says perhaps they should be required to spend 5 percent of those endowments each year. Welch has introduced legislation to require that percentage to be spent to reduce tuition and other student expenses.

This government reach for control of private resources comes even though last year colleges and universities spent, on average, 4.6 percent of their endowments. Furthermore, most endowments are too small to be a significant source of captured money.

…but why should that last detail matter to the Donk legislooters? A few billion here, a few billion there…eventually it starts to add up!

The next one is even worse, because in THIS patently shameless rip-off scheme, the —(insert favorite epithetic description here)— Donks are taking aim at INDIVIDUAL’S 401K and IRA accounts. Why? Again, the answer would seem to be…that’s where the money is, and besides, it’s a nifty way to move ever onward in the left-Lib’s on-going effort to bring about a New Socialist Utopia by redistributing our wealth…such as it is. (Hey – it’s THEIR wording, not mine!)

Dems Target Private Retirement Accounts

Not only do the Social Democrats (Donks) oppose the barest hint of privatising Social Security, they want to force the private means of people to plan for and provide for their own retirement away, and roll it into a Big Government Fund under the benign management of that acme of bureaucratic efficiency – the Social Security Administration! (gag! retch! choke!)

Democrats in the U.S. House have been conducting hearings on proposals to confiscate workers’ personal retirement accounts — including 401(k)s and IRAs — and convert them to accounts managed by the Social Security Administration. Triggered by the financial crisis the past two months, the hearings reportedly were meant to stem losses incurred by many workers and retirees whose 401(k) and IRA balances have been shrinking rapidly.

The testimony of Teresa Ghilarducci, professor of economic policy analysis at the New School for Social Research in New York, in hearings Oct. 7 drew the most attention and criticism. Testifying for the House Committee on Education and Labor, Ghilarducci proposed that the government eliminate tax breaks for 401(k) and similar retirement accounts, such as IRAs, and confiscate workers’ retirement plan accounts and convert them to universal Guaranteed Retirement Accounts (GRAs) managed by the Social Security Administration.

The logic – or lack of it at work here is stunning:

Rep. George Miller, D-Calif., chairman of the House Committee on Education and Labor, in prepared remarks for the hearing on “The Impact of the Financial Crisis on Workers’ Retirement Security,” blamed Wall Street for the financial crisis and said his committee will “strengthen and protect Americans’ 401(k)s, pensions, and other retirement plans” and the “Democratic Congress will continue to conduct this much-needed oversight on behalf of the American people.”

In other words, they are looking to protect 401(k)’s, pensions, and IRA’s by TAKING THEM AWAY FROM INDIVIDUALS AND PLACING THEM INTO A NEW GOVERNMENT PROGRAM!!!!! W.T.F.?????

Ghilarducci’s plan first appeared in a paper for the Economic Policy Institute: Agenda for Shared Prosperity on Nov. 20, 2007, in which she said GRAs will rescue the flawed American retirement income system (www.sharedprosperity.org/bp204/bp204.pdf). The current retirement system, Ghilarducci said, “exacerbates income and wealth inequalities” because tax breaks for voluntary retirement accounts are “skewed to the wealthy because it is easier for them to save, and because they receive bigger tax breaks when they do.”

Lauding GRAs as a way to effectively increase retirement savings, Ghilarducci wrote that savings incentives are unequal for rich and poor families because tax deferrals “provide a much larger ‘carrot’ to wealthy families than to middle-class families — and none whatsoever for families too poor to owe taxes.”

How unfair is this? People who don’t pay taxes can’t get a ttax deferral! It’s a cruel system that Social Justice demands reform of…at least according to this Donk moonbat.

GRAs would guarantee a fixed 3 percent annual rate of return, although later in her article Ghilarducci explained that participants would not “earn a 3% real return in perpetuity.” In place of tax breaks workers now receive for contributions and thus a lower tax rate, workers would receive $600 annually from the government, inflation-adjusted. For low-income workers whose annual contributions are less than $600, the government would deposit whatever amount it would take to equal the minimum $600 for all participants.

In a radio interview with Kirby Wilbur in Seattle on Oct. 27, 2008, Ghilarducci explained that her proposal doesn’t eliminate the tax breaks, rather, “I’m just rearranging the tax breaks that are available now for 401(k)s and spreading — spreading the wealth.”

All workers would have 5 percent of their annual pay deducted from their paychecks and deposited to the GRA. They would still be paying Social Security and Medicare taxes, as would the employers. The GRA contribution would be shared equally by the worker and the employee. Employers no longer would be able to write off their contributions. Any capital gains would be taxable year-on-year.

Analysts point to another disturbing part of the plan. With a GRA, workers could bequeath only half of their account balances to their heirs, unlike full balances from existing 401(k) and IRA accounts. For workers who die after retiring, they could bequeath just their own contributions plus the interest but minus any benefits received and minus the employer contributions.

Has anyone done such a thing before…yes, there IS a very recent historical precedent:

On Oct. 22, The Wall Street Journal reported that the Argentinean government had seized all private pension and retirement accounts to fund government programs and to address a ballooning deficit. Fearing an economic collapse, foreign investors quickly pulled out, forcing the Argentinean stock market to shut down several times.

…and discouragingly, they apparently didn’t learn anything after a previous bout of fiscal piracy that didn’t work out well either:

More than 10 years ago, nationalization of private savings sent Argentina’s economy into a long-term downward spiral.

The spirit of Marx is alive and well in Washington, D.C.

The majority of witness testimony during recent hearings before the House Committee on Education and Labor showed that congressional Democrats intend to address income and wealth inequality through redistribution.

The piece goes on to quote a number of cases where the testimony runs unequivocally in the direction of income redistribution programs, including pronouncements (on video) to that effect from the now President-Elect, B.O. himself.

May God have mercy on the United States…because the Democrats sure won’t!

F.E.T.E.

Home State Paper Down on Dodd

Dodd Decides: No Story In Loan Deals

This is pretty good for the MSM, likening Sen. Chris Dodd (Donk-CT) to something out of Dr. Seuss.

It’s pretty accurate, too.

Sen. Christopher Dodd sounded like Dr. Seuss without the depth last week. “It is what it is,” declared Dodd, mistaking Hartford for Whoville, when he told The Courant’s Rick Green that he had no plans to release documents from his $800,000 in sweetheart mortgages from subprime titan Countrywide Financial.

“There is nothing to the story and I’m just not going to keep on repeating it,” pronounced Dodd, as he morphed into Yertle the Turtle. “‘You hush up your mouth!’ howled the mighty King Yertle. ‘You’ve no right to talk to the world’s highest turtle.'”

Dodd will serve the state green eggs and ham before he’ll honor his pledges to release the documents from deals that will save him tens of thousands of dollars over the terms of the loans. Nonsensical answers, however, won’t smother persistent, serious questions about Dodd’s abuse of his office.

“Abuse of office.” Youch!

“…interesting times…”

THE PANIC OF 2008

Dow plunges 679 to fall to lowest level in 5 years

The Chief along with teaching high school U.S. History, is working in a program for a Master’s Degree in
History, with an emphasis on U.S history from pre-history to the present.

The above header will be the highlighted main topic in future history books. The nightly news costitutes a daily blow-by-blow account of the slow-motion train wreck of the global economy. We have been living in what has arguably been a golden age”, and God willing, having observed the effect of too much of a “something for nothing” attitude, we can orient ourselves towards a more sound attitude towards our lifestyles, make appropriate decisions to live within our means again, and continue to act consistently with TAANSTAFL. (There Ain’t No Such Thing As A Free Lunch)

A Light in the Forest!

Bankruptcy, not bailout, is the right answer

Her comes Jeffrey Miron an oxymoronically placed libertarian economist from harvard, with this OpEd being carried by CNN! Phew! It almost boggles the mind that this saw the light of day. FINALLY someone has cut through the crap and reached the root of the matter. We should be so lucky that our legislooters of both parties could (or would) think so clearly

Congress has balked at the Bush administration’s proposed $700 billion bailout of Wall Street. Under this plan, the Treasury would have bought the “troubled assets” of financial institutions in an attempt to avoid economic meltdown. This bailout was a terrible idea. Here’s why.

The current mess would never have occurred in the absence of ill-conceived federal policies. The federal government chartered Fannie Mae in 1938 and Freddie Mac in 1970; these two mortgage lending institutions are at the center of the crisis. The government implicitly promised these institutions that it would make good on their debts, so Fannie and Freddie took on huge amounts of excessive risk.

He goes on with far more reason than is found in either (or both) houses of Congress.

It’s a refreshing change!

Congressional GOP Continues Spinal Development Program

Republican anger at ‘financial socialism’

The GOP in Congress is continuing to show encouraging signs of gumption, continuing the more aggressive opposition to libDonk moonbattery that was started by their unofficial continuation of the House session while the Donks went home for a fall break. It’s noteworthy that that exercise concerned the Donk blockage of off-shore drilling…said blockage now to be abandoned in response.

One can hope that their opposition to the Donks’ and Bush’s new-world-order style of financial centralization to bail out their good ole’ buddies achieves similar results.

Congressional Republicans on Tuesday voiced their strongest objections to date about the Bush administration’s $700bn financial rescue plans, dealing a blow to White House ambitions for them to be quickly approved.

As Hank Paulson, Treasury secretary, and Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve, predicted grim consequences if the plan were rejected, the Republicans’ Senate leadership called for new provisions on executive pay, which the administration opposes, while others cast doubt on the whole package.

  Ben Bernanke and Christopher Cox of the SEC

“We are going to advance taxpayers’ dollars, and government ends up in effect taking an equity position in businesses,” Mitch McConnell, Senate minority leader, said. “I think the taxpayers should expect no less than strict limits on the type of executive compensation that might be possible for those involved in these partially government-controlled enterprises.”

“…taking an equity position…” In other works becoming (at least part) owner…in effect socializing the hosed-over finance industry.

Growing Republican doubts will make it harder for momentum to build in favour of the proposal.

The heavy hand of governmental intervention and social engineering caused the generation of much of the toxic-grade mortgage debt that underlies the current difficulties. More of that hand intervening in the mess can only prolong the readjustment, and will make the ultimate resolution of the problem(s) all the more severe and painful. These plans need to die a rapid death, so the economy can have a chance of correcting the effects of previous interventions.

Oil Price Crunches Globalist Trade Pattern

Oil price shock means China is at risk of blowing up

The Telegraph’s Ambrose Evans-Pritchard is one of the sharpest reporters around, and has been for some time. He describes a very interesting situation.

The great oil shock of 2008 is bad enough for us. It poses a mortal threat to the whole economic strategy of emerging Asia. The manufacturing revolution of China and her satellites has been built on cheap transport over the past decade. At a stroke, the trade model looks obsolete….

Can you say “schadenfreude“?

“The monumental energy price increases will be a ‘game-changer’ for Asia,” said Stephen Jen, currency chief at Morgan Stanley. The region’s trade model is about to be “stress-tested”.

Energy subsidies have disguised the damage. China has held down electricity prices, though global coal costs have tripled since early 2007. Loss-making industries are being propped up. This merely delays trouble. “The true impact of the shock will only be revealed over time, as subsidies are gradually rolled back,” he said. Last week, China raised internal rail freight rates by 17pc.

BP ‘s Statistical Review says China’s use of energy per unit of gross domestic product is three times that of the US, five times Japan’s, and eight times Britain’s. China’s factories “were not built with current energy levels in mind”, said Mr Jen. The outcome will be “non-linear”. My translation: China is at risk of blowing up.

Non-linear…as in jagged, or sharp and sudden, not smooth and gradual.

Any low-tech product shipped in bulk – furniture, say, or shoes – is facing the ever-rising tariff of high freight costs. The Asian outsourcing game is over, says CIBC World Markets. “It’s not just about labour costs any more: distance costs money,” says chief economist Jeff Rubin. Xinhua says that 2,331 shoe factories in Guangdong have shut down this year, half the total.

North Carolina’s furniture industry is coming back from the dead as companies shut plant in China. “We’re getting hit with increases up and down the system. It’s changing the whole equation of where we produce,” said Craftsmaster Furniture.

It’s an ill wind indeed that blows no good!

Evans-Pritchard concludes with a turn of phrase that is well worth some serious contemplation, as it cuts to the real heart of the matter IMHO:

Come what may, globalisation has passed its high-water mark. The pendulum will now swing back from China to America. The mercantilists will have to reinvent themselves.

Interesting times, indeed!

Food Spot Shortages…in the U.S.? Huh?

Food Rationing Confronts Breadbasket of the World

Many parts of America, long considered the breadbasket of the world, are now confronting a once unthinkable phenomenon: food rationing. Major retailers in New York, in areas of New England, and on the West Coast are limiting purchases of flour, rice, and cooking oil as demand outstrips supply. There are also anecdotal reports that some consumers are hoarding grain stocks.

An employee at the Costco store in Queens said there were no restrictions on rice buying, but limits were being imposed on purchases of oil and flour. Internet postings attributed some of the shortage at the retail level to bakery owners who flocked to warehouse stores when the price of flour from commercial suppliers doubled.

The curbs and shortages are being tracked with concern by survivalists who view the phenomenon as a harbinger of more serious trouble to come.

ANY food shortages, even limited spot shortages of specific items in the US is one heck of a LONG way from what it should be.

Spiking food prices have led to riots in recent weeks in Haiti, Indonesia, and several African nations. India recently banned export of all but the highest quality rice, and Vietnam blocked the signing of a new contract for foreign rice sales. “I’m surprised the Bush administration hasn’t slapped export controls on wheat,” Mr. Rawles said. “The Asian countries are here buying every kind of wheat.”

Mr. Rawles said it is hard to know how much of the shortages are due to lagging supply and how much is caused by consumers hedging against future price hikes or a total lack of product. “There have been so many stories about worldwide shortages that it encourages people to stock up. What most people don’t realize is that supply chains have changed, so inventories are very short,” Mr. Rawles, a former Army intelligence officer, said. “Even if people increased their purchasing by 20%, all the store shelves would be wiped out.”

“It ain’t that pretty at all.” – Warren Zevon

Not the Fed Again!

Bush Administration Proposes Most Sweeping Overhaul of Financial Regulation Since Depression

The Bush administration is trying to confront the credit crisis that has rattled nerves from Wall Street to Main Street by proposing wholesale changes in how Washington oversees the financial system. A plan set for release Monday would give new powers to the Federal Reserve so that the central bank serves as the system’s overarching protector of stability.

Great! The Fed has been doing the same sort of stupid stuff that it did in the late 20’s to try to artificially maintain a semblance of prosperity, so now the Fed is going to get even more powers to screw things up with. Just what we need! Not with the Fed shoveling cash out the helicopter door lest idiots who don’t think enough to stop themselves from gambling with their livelihood might lose out.

Peak Oil? Not!

Shell exec says world not running out of oil

John Hofmeister, the Houston-based president of Shell Oil’s U.S. operations, express doubt about the validity of peak oil theory in an appearance on CNBC’s Squawk Box show. “The peak oil theory has really swamped the world. God bless Matt Simmons,” Hofmeister told CNBC anchor Carl Quintanilla, according to a transcript provided to WND by CNBC. “His assumptions are correct based on his hypotheses, but his hypotheses are too narrow.”

Matt Simmons, a Houston-based investment banker who specializes in the energy industry, is widely known for his 2005 book, “Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy,” in which he analyzed oil depletion data from Saudi Arabian wells. The peak oil theory argues the world’s oil resources are finite and will be completely exhausted at a future date.

This has been predicted about as often as the “Population Bomb” stuff that we would all be starving to death by now.

Hofmeister explained to the CNBC audience why he believed Simmons’ hypotheses were too narrow. “In other words, Simmons is looking at conventional oil only,” Hofmeister said. “In the industry, we look at unconventional oil as well.” Unconventional oil is a reference to oil that is not found as crude oil in reservoirs contained in sedimentary rock layers just below the surface of the earth.

This goes along with the Russian originated theories that much oil is present, and in fact is being steadily produced by abiotic processes deep in the earth.

Abiotic oil…also present in apparently vast quantities on the Saturnian moon Titan. No dinos there, methinks!

Read the article, check out the links, too.

What? No dinosaurs? What’s Sinclair to do?

It COULD be even worse (and may well become so!)

To set a context for this piece, Britain actually adds import duties to the price of gasoline and diesel fuel…and has an increase scheduled to take effect next month, generating a certain amount of hostility, since the Brits gas is now over 1 pound per liter (non-metric types think of a quart). The pound is running around $2 now, making their gas NOW oaver $8.00 per gallon!

Alistair Darling under fire over fuel duty rise

Motorists could be paying £5 a gallon for petrol within weeks if the Chancellor implements the 2.35 pence a litre rise in the Budget. Diesel drivers have long since broken the £5 barrier, much to the fury of hauliers and farmers. With oil on the world market trading at $103 a barrel, there was little relief in sight for road users, especially with mounting speculation that other “green motoring taxes” could be included in the Budget.

The groundswell of opposition to further rises appeared was growing last night after it emerged that the cost of fuel has increased by nearly 20 per cent in 12 months. A coalition including the National Farmers’ Union, motoring groups, business leaders, petrol retailers and the TaxPayers Alliance is demanding the next rise, scheduled for April 1, be scrapped.

Sort of like the saying “I complained because I had no shoes, then met a man who had no feet.”

US Banks “Buffetted”

Bank woes are “poetic justice”

The Chief is NOT a fan of Omaha uber-investor Warren Buffett, but in this case, he makes a good point.

The woes in the U.S. financial sector are “poetic justice” for bankers who designed and sold complex investments that have since gone sour, billionaire investor Warren Buffett said on Wednesday….

“It’s sort of a little poetic justice, in that the people that brewed this toxic Kool-Aid found themselves drinking a lot of it in the end,” he said.

Bottoms up!

Fed Branch Pres Spills the Beans…and there’s too many of ’em to count!

Passing the buck

The Chief REALLY, REALLY wants to comment on this offering from the feared and esteemed Mogambo Guru, but words fail…this is truly indescribable…it stands on its own…but is enough to alarm anyone rational to notice that the financial emperor – The Federal Reserve – has no clothes.

To quote an applicable song title from Warren Zevon: “It ain’t that pretty at all”

If you want to know the reason why America is freaking doomed, it is because of lowlife losers like St Louis Federal Reserve president William Poole, who is being quoted at MarketWatch.com as saying that nothing is his fault, as, “Investment professionals’ ‘shortsightedness’ led them to make fundamental errors that led to the mortgage crisis and credit meltdown.” Hahaha!

MarketWatch.com reports that, “In a speech to financial planners, Poole detailed five key mistakes that borrowers and lenders made that have pushed the economy to the brink of recession.” These “mistakes” were, according to Poole, that “Borrowers took on mortgages they could not afford,” which sidesteps the issue that nobody would have taken out a mortgage if the damnable Federal Reserve, of which he was a part, had not created all the money. Which created inflation, as it always does, in housing.

After detailing the sorry circumstances of the above mentioned “mistakes”, (which is well worth reading) things get worse…

Poole is obviously implying that everyone should know by now that the Federal Reserve and its banking system is a stupid, lying pit of vipers who cannot be trusted, and that the ratings agencies are even worse, and that only an idiot would trust either of these despicable organizations to tell you the correct time of day, much less rely on them to know what they are doing in establishing risk or telling you the truth about it when they are all raking in the big bucks by being incompetent.

…and still worse yet…

Mr Poole, obviously embarrassed by my rude comments, says that, “A reach for yield with inadequate attention to risk is another basic lesson that apparently cannot be relearned often enough,” when he actually means, “To never, ever trust the word or competence of the Federal Reserve is a lesson that cannot be relearned often enough.”

And not only is the Fed a bunch of laughably incompetent morons, but they never learn, and in Poole’s own words, “There are no new lessons here. The mistakes that brought us to this point have been made before.” Indeed they have! And that is why the US constitution has the requirement that money be only of gold and silver; to keep bank morons and government morons from creating so much money that they produce inflation and busts!

…but wait! There’s more:

…the government’s promises for future benefits payable under the Social Security and Medicare programs are now estimated to be at $53 trillion, in current dollars. This is up from about $20 trillion in 2000. Naturally, I whip out the old HP12C calculator, and in a matter of just a few moments I had produced several contradictory answers to the question, “What in the hell is the hyperinflationary horror, in percentage terms, of liabilities increasing from $20 trillion to $53 trillion in 7 years?”, most of them clustering around 15%, which is so terrifying a number that I instinctively repeat the calculations, hoping I am wrong. But I am not.

So a LOT of money has to be created, and for those who wish to know the eventual outcome of a central bank constantly creating excess money and credit over the long term, the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (the worst of the worst) calculates that their inflation in consumer prices was 24,059% (!) in 2007. In other words, if a loaf of bread cost $.01 in January, it now costs $240.59 in December.

Actually, it is Much, Much Worse (MMW) than that, as the Voice of America reported that “Recent estimates of Zimbabwean inflation by independent economists have tended to run quite a bit higher, ranging from 50,000% to 100,000%”, and “Zimbabwe’s Central Statistical Office stopped providing data on inflation in September, saying it could not find prices for key goods because they were not on store shelves.” Hahaha!

In America (the place where lying with statistics achieved official government status, thanks to the loathsome Alan Greenspan, the worst central banker in the history of central banking, and the despicable Michael Boskin of Stanford University, his willing henchman), a complete absence of goods on store shelves means that “everything costs zero”! And then Greenspan and Boskin could, with their new method, claim that this proves that inflation is falling! Hahaha! Time for a rate cut! Hahahaha!

Read the whole thing and weep!

More Holiday Cheer!

Crisis may make 1929 look a ‘walk in the park’
This piece from The London Telegraph’s ace reporter/commentator Ambrose Evans-Pritchard will do nothing to calm your economic nerves, but then again, it looks more and more like it’s time to be as alarmed as we have sense to be. This is only the latest in a series of unsettling observations on the current state of the financial system.

As the credit paralysis stretches through its fifth month, a chorus of economists has begun to warn that the world’s central banks are fighting the wrong war, and perhaps risk a policy error of epochal proportions.

“Liquidity doesn’t do anything in this situation,” says Anna Schwartz, the doyenne of US monetarism and life-time student (with Milton Friedman) of the Great Depression. “It cannot deal with the underlying fear that lots of firms are going bankrupt. The banks and the hedge funds have not fully acknowledged who is in trouble. That is the critical issue,” she adds.

But wait…there’s more:

York (UK) professor Peter Spencer, chief economist for the ITEM Club, says the global authorities have just weeks to get this right, or trigger disaster. “The central banks are rapidly losing control. By not cutting interest rates nearly far enough or fast enough, they are allowing the money markets to dictate policy. We are long past worrying about moral hazard,” he says. “They still have another couple of months before this starts imploding. Things are very unstable and can move incredibly fast. I don’t think the central banks are going to make a major policy error, but if they do, this could make 1929 look like a walk in the park,” he adds.

and more:

“The kind of upheaval observed in the international money markets over the past few months has never been witnessed in history,” says Thomas Jordan, a Swiss central bank governor.

Not only is this article well worth noting…the accompanying comments in the Telegraph are too. This one, unfortunately seems to succinctly summarize the situation:

“The Central Bank’s choices are simple: let the banks fail or let the money fail. A US 1929 style depression or a German 1922 style hyperinflation.”

Merry Christmas!

Bankers: Recession in the Offing

Morgan Stanley issues full US recession alert

Morgan Stanley has issued a full recession alert for the US economy, warning of a sharp slowdown in business investment and a “perfect storm” for consumers as the housing slump spreads.

In a report “Recession Coming” released today, the bank’s US team said the credit crunch had started to inflict serious damage on US companies. “Slipping sales and tightening credit are pushing companies into liquidation mode, especially in motor vehicles,” it said.

Avast! Batten down the hatches!

Clean up our act, or more inflation? Inflation wins!

Bank of England and Fed act to ease crisis

The Bank of England this afternoon announced it is clubbing together with its fellow central banks to conduct a major rescue operation for the world’s stricken money markets. In an unprecedented move, the Bank said it and the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Canada, the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank were taking measures to “address elevated pressures in short-term funding markets.”

It comes amid growing concern for the fate of the money markets and stock markets in London and New York, after interest rate cuts by the Fed and the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee failed to improve the increasingly negative mood

Heaven fordid that BANKERS should have to lose any money!

Extension of Corporate Ability to Sell-out US Sought by Admin.

Justice, DHS ‘still object’ to CFIUS order

National security and trade officials are deadlocked over provisions of a draft White House order aimed at bolstering the security aspects of the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, The Washington Times has learned.

The interagency dispute over a draft executive order on the Treasury Department-led committee, known as CFIUS, took place during several interagency meetings over the past two months, but differences on the wording and authority remain unresolved, according to officials close to the debate who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

So what’s the argument about, really?

However, the official said that the National Security Council staff are ready to push ahead with the current order despite the objections from security officials and members of Congress from both parties.

Additionally, several members of Congress have asked for briefings on the executive order but have been put off by the White House, the officials said.

At issue are the law’s implementing regulations, which critics in the administration say will limit the authority that national security agencies had to order “mitigation agreements” designed to curtail national-security threats from proposed foreign acquisitions of U.S. companies. Under the draft order, the Treasury secretary will have more power to resolve disputes when before the committee, while the White House National Security Council staff gets more authority in the appeals process.

In other words, these administration moonbat internationalist corporate lackeys want to smooth the path for a continuing program of literally and figuratively sellling out the US to the ChiComs, with minimal regard to the US’s own national security.

What’s the solution?

Rope. Tree. Traitors. Some assembly required.

Report: Nix on 3Com + ChiCom Funny Business

Intelligence report hits China deal

More blowback via Bill Gertz in the D.C. Times to the proposed merger of 3Com into a ChiCom “business”:

U.S. intelligence agencies informed a Treasury Department-led review committee recently that a merger between 3Com and a Chinese company would threaten U.S. national security, The Washington Times has learned.

Bush administration intelligence officials said the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) recently submitted a required threat assessment to the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, known as CFIUS, which is conducting a 30-day investigation of the proposed deal between 3Com and China’s Huawei Technologies.

The assessment, which is classified, described the deal as posing a “threat” to U.S. national security, according to officials familiar with the document.

Another maladroit attempt, with even more of a problem than the late, unlamented Dubai ports deal.

Inconvenient Economics

More of this…as previously reported by the Chief.

Firstly, Mogambo Guru continuing to sound off in his imimitable style:

More generous inflation protection

Around here, governments are freezing open staff positions and trimming budgets, which is bad news for an economy that depends on government spending, like America’s. And so it seems natural that we learn from Bloomberg.com that, “New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg ordered agency heads to freeze all city hiring and cut their budgets this year and next, anticipating less revenue as Wall Street profits drop and real estate sales slow.”

The net effect is that “New York state faces a budget gap of $4.3 billion next year, up from $3.6 billion estimated three months ago, as Wall Street job cuts and losses reduce tax revenue, the Division of Budget said. The state normally collects about 20% of its revenue from taxes on Wall Street companies and employees.” 20%! Wow! No wonder Wall Street sharpies are always sticking me with fees, expenses and commissions!

But rememebr – the economy is REALLY doing just fine! Didn’t the Dow go up 300 today? Besides, inflation is low, right?

Read on…

Gold: A barbarous relic

The dollar is now worth less than 1/800th of an ounce of gold – the most significant financial development in the world today. Why is this more important than crude oil over US$95, or copper over $3, or wheat over $7? Because, unique among all the commodities and industrial products in the world, gold is money.

What does this mean: “gold is money”? It means that gold has the primary desired characteristic of money, which is stability of value. Thus, when the “price of gold goes up”, the value of gold doesn’t change much. What you are witnessing is the value of
currencies declining. The dollar, yes, but also the euro, yen and yuan. The result of declining currency value is inflation.

Read more for a pretty good primer on the gold standard and our current inflationary environment.

Federal Reserve Balloon Works in Action

The sole inflation creator

Mogambo in the Asia Times continues to call a spade a spade, and speak inconvenient truth abnut our economic trends.
Read the whole column to appreciate its full flavor, but this dollop will give you the general idea at least:

I motion for Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital to take the microphone and talk some sense into these idiots in the audience. I shout out, “Okay, listen up, you morons! Mr Schiff here is going to tell you about inflation!”

I step aside, and Mr Schiff says, “Inflation has only one cause and that is the Federal Reserve itself. In the United States, the supply of money and credit is regulated by the Fed. Since inflation is by definition an increase in the supply of money and credit, only the Fed can create it.”

I look out over the audience to see if anything is sinking into their heads, but all I see is people glaring at me with that familiar look of hatred in their eyes. So I mischievously ask, “What would happen if the Fed didn’t create more money and credit?”

He easily replies, “If the money supply were held constant, increases in some prices would be offset by decreases in others. The result would be no overall inflation.”

No inflation! To make sure that nobody misses this important point, I grab the microphone right out of his hand and I scream, “No inflation in prices! No inflation in prices! It’s a paradise! No inflation!”

Mr Schiff, taken aback by my sudden outburst, gingerly takes the microphone back and says that, “In fact, without government created expansions of the money supply, the natural tendency of prices would be to decline as technology allowed for more efficient production of goods and services.” (emphases added)

What a concept!

Economy Inflated?

A couple of articles that things might not be as healthy in terms of inflation. Inflation, what inflation?

Yeah, THAT inflation – that’s drastically revised downwards since the formula for calculating it was “improved” during the reign of President Bubba Clinton.

Read ’em and weep…and then figuratively (or maybe even literally?) look to your moat!

Did He Say “Tighter Monetary Policy”?

It looks like about $15.4 trillion in bank assets and liabilities is being backed up by a minuscule $40.2 billion. That’s a microscopic 0.0026%. Hahahaha! Fractional reserve banking at its finest!

The Mogambo Theory of Currency Relativity

I have been advised over and over again to consider foreign currencies as an investment, and I have declined over and over again because I think that all foreign currencies are, being as polite as I can, pieces of crap….

And not only that, but these fiat currencies are routinely multiplied by the banks using miniscule amounts of reserves in a wildly-inflationary fractional-reserve banking paradigm, just like the United States does with the dollar, and that means that all their currencies are crap, too, just like the U.S. dollar, and the purchasing power of each unit of each of these currencies will always be going down, just like the U.S. dollar, and the only stupid “strength” that they can muster is to be fractionally stronger than other stupid fiat currencies and other more extreme fractional-reserve central banking idiocies, namely (as if you had to be told) the U.S. dollar and the wildly inflationary Federal Reserve….

…it’s a matter of Einstein’s relativity; two entities are in relation to each other, so that one currency appears to be moving ahead and one appears to be falling behind, but the reality is they are both falling, falling, falling in purchasing power and they are saying in their little currency voices, “Oooh! Help us! We’re faaaaalllliiiiing!”

It’s just that one is perceived as losing value less fast, and so it is just a matter of time, and the contraction of time, which explains why the speed of light is a perceived constant, and why one currency moves against another because one of them is seemingly standing still.

Einstein, whom everyone thinks is such a hotshot intellectual giant, did not see the obvious correlation to how the speed of inflation in prices are functions of how insanely, traitorously stupid, stupid, stupid your central bank is in creating the enormous gravitational mass of excess money and credit, and thus inflation will kill your currency and your economy

Maybe those secessionists noted here have a point.

Paradigm Shift on Oil in Order

The concept of “peak oil” is near and dear to the hearts of the doomsayer schools of environmentalism. Here’s another perspective on the issue that seems to be based on something more than a case of enviromentalist “vapors”.

Russia is far from oil’s peak

The good news is that panic scenarios about the world running out of oil any time soon are wrong. The bad news is that the price of oil is going to continue to rise. “Peak Oil” is not our problem. Politics is. Big Oil wants to sustain high oil prices. US Vice President Dick Cheney and friends are all too willing to assist.

What is the “peak oil” theory?

The Peak Oil school rests its theory on conventional Western geology textbooks, most by American or British geologists, which claim oil is a “fossil fuel”, a biological residue or detritus of either fossilized dinosaur remains or perhaps algae, hence a product in finite supply. Biological origin is central to Peak Oil theory, used to explain why oil is only found in certain parts of the world where it was geologically trapped millions of years ago.

That would mean that dinosaur remains became compressed and over tens of millions of years fossilized and were trapped in underground reservoirs perhaps 1,200-2,000 meters below the surface of the Earth. In rare cases, so goes the theory, huge amounts of biological matter should have been trapped in rock formations in the shallower ocean regions such as in the Gulf of Mexico or North Sea or Gulf of Guinea. Geology should be only about figuring out where these pockets in the layers of the earth, called reservoirs, lie within certain sedimentary basins.

On the other hand…

An entirely alternative theory of oil formation has existed since the early 1950s in Russia, almost unknown to the West. It claims that the conventional US biological-origins theory is an unscientific absurdity that is unprovable. They point to the fact that Western geologists have repeatedly predicted finite oil over the past century, only then to find more, lots more.

Not only has this alternative explanation of the origins of oil and gas existed in theory, the emergence of Russia as the world’s largest oil and natural-gas producer has been based on the application of the theory in practice.(Emphasis added.)

Note here: they put their money where their mouth is, and lo and behold…it worked!

This has geopolitical consequences of staggering magnitude.

THAT is a profound understatement! Read the rest of this and THEN look at the price on the corner gas station, and scratch your head along with the Chief.

How could US geology be so far behind the 8-ball on this? Hey! We’ve had long practice at trailing the rest of the world in geological theory:

Russian geophysicists used the theories of brilliant German scientist Alfred Wegener fully 30 years before Western geologists “discovered” Wegener in the 1960s. In 1915, Wegener published the seminal text The Origin of Continents and Oceans, which suggested an original unified landmass or Pangaea more than 200 million years ago that separated into present continents by what he called continental drift.

Up to the 1960s, supposed US scientists such as Dr Frank Press, the White House science adviser, referred to Wegener as “lunatic”. Geologists at the end of the 1960s were forced to eat their words as Wegener offered the only interpretation that allowed them to discover the vast oil resources of the North Sea.

Perhaps in some decades Western geologists will rethink their mythology of fossil origins and realize what the Russians have known since the 1950s. In the meantime, Moscow holds a massive energy trump card.

Predictable Opposition to Refinery Emerges

Refinery proposal ignites battle for support

The predictable NIMBY (Not In My Back Yard) reaction to Hyperion Energy’s proposed Union County, SD oil refinery is off and running.

Whatever. Typical NIMBY opposition to any form of serious economic development (unless it’s a project of your own).

This will be a long, drawn out argument…and hopefully the project will proceed. The country needs refineries, and the 1800 permanent jobs will be a strongly positive addition to the state.

ChiCom Trade Shell Game Unraveling for US

Is China quietly dumping US Treasuries?

The economic shell game that the US has been playing for far too long in maintaining a ruinous trade deficit with the ChiComs may be on the verge of ending…with some very unpleasant consequences for us, and for much of the rest of the world’s economy.

A sharp drop in foreign holdings of US Treasury bonds over the last five weeks has raised concerns that China is quietly withdrawing its funds from the United States, leaving the dollar increasingly vulnerable.
# China threatens `nuclear option’ of dollar sales

Data released by the New York Federal Reserve shows that foreign central banks have cut their stash of US Treasuries by $48bn since late July, with falls of $32bn in the last two weeks alone.

Perhaps not coincidently, Taiwan is making sounds about renewing its quest to re-enter the UN, something the ChiComs harshly reject as being a preliminary move towards independence. Their stated policy is to counter such a move with all means – including military force.

Two top advisers to the Chinese government gave strong hints in August that Beijing should use its estimated $900bn holdings of US Treasuries and agency bonds as a “bargaining chip”, words taken as an implicit threat to trigger as US bond crash if provoked.

The US policy of defending Taiwan could be quietly abrogated, under the threat of ChiCom economic pressure…like dumping off US T-bonds, which could seriously affect the status of the dollar internationally, with immediate further ramifications on the world energy market.

The picture is further complicated by US ATTEMPTS to pressure a currency market revaluation of the ChiCom Yuan to try to stanch the trade hemmorhage, which (surprise, surprise, is being received with little enthusiasm in Beijing.

Neither alternative would be good for us. If YOU were Dubya, do you throw Taiwan off the bridge, or watch the dollar be brought down, triggering a serious recession if not an actual depression. We do have one thing in our favor. They hold so much of our debt paper, if they crash it, they lose a lot of money. Of course, they ARE Communists, and just maybe the money is NOT the object at all.

Looks like the ChiComs are getting ready to score a big win over us, without a shot being fired. Lao Tzu would be proud of his descendants for implementing his ancient advice.

Terrs Taking Care of Business?

$1 Billion in suspicious stock activity reminiscent of pre-9/11 conditions

Unusually for the Chief, I offer the following intact blurb from NE Intelligence Network:

In the weeks preceding the 2001 attacks on America, there were very significant financial warning signs that something big – and bad – could be about to happen. Huge surges in purchases of “put options” on stocks of United Airlines and American Airlines, the two airlines used in the attacks, and “put options” on Merrill Lynch & Co., and Morgan Stanley, stocks of two financial services companies hurt by the attack were noted. Put options are essentially “bets” that a stock or stock index will drop on or before a certain date; the larger the drop, the bigger the gain for the purchaser of the option.

Fast forward to the present day, and we have the same type of trading that took place in the days that preceded the 9/11 attacks – but on a larger scale. Nearly $1 billion of “put options” have been purchased, basically betting that Standard and Poor’s 500 index will fall significantly by the third Friday in September. A large number of these options have also been purchased calling for 50% decline by September 21, 2007. For example, a 5% drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average would be the current equivalent of about 670 points. A decline of 11% would equal about 1,470 points in today’s market. Obviously, larger drops, such as a 50% decline, would cause an unprecedented market collapse. Money would be made for the purchaser(s) of the put options – but the same purchaser(s) stand to lose over $1 BILLION in the investment if the market remains relatively static through September 21, 2007.

The questions are: who can stand to lose $1 BILLION, who will gain in the wake of such a devastating collapse, who are the investors, and what do they know that we don’t?

Sounds sort of alarming to ME, but hey, what do I know about high finance? (Not a whole lot!)

Reality Check on Gas Prices

Price at the pump driven by aging U.S. refineries

Attention American motorists: It is not ExxonMobil or Middle Eastern oil producers who are driving the price of gasoline you pay at the pump.

It is shortages of gas and other problems at aging refineries in your neighborhoods.

Well DUH! We haven’t built any new refineries in over 30 years, while demand for gas has increased. Get a clue!