Judging from the rather frantic behind-the-scenes efforts of Russia and China in Iran, they seem to appreciate that the Iranian leadership is in for a big and probably deadly surprise.
This is interesting – it’s almost to the point where the rocks are starting to roll down the mountain, and the ChiComs and Russkies are trying to not get in the way.
The Russians saw the writing on the wall when France, Germany and Britain began to march in lockstep with the United States. In particular, the widely but wrongly discounted nuclear belligerence of President Jacques Chirac last month implied that France was ready to accept the US use of nuclear weapons in a war against Iran if they saw fit to do so.
If Ahm-mad-on-a-jihad Ahmadinejad is as fixated with his own worldview as he fully seems to be, he may well be convinced that he can get away with all this stuff, in spite of the trends – an apparent case of poor situational awareness.
There is an interesting war scenario spelled out by this writer, with a background in the German intel service. Sounds like a great Plot for a Tom Clancy type novel.
An initial Israeli air attack against some Iranian nuclear targets, command and control targets and Shahab missile sites. Iran retaliates with its remaining missiles, tries to close the Gulf, attacks US naval assets and American and British forces in Iraq. If Iranian missiles have chemical warheads (in fact or presumed), the US will immediately use nuclear weapons to destroy the Iranian military and industrial infrastructure. If not, an air campaign of up to two weeks will prepare the ground campaign for the occupation of the Iranian oil and gas fields.
Mass mobilization in Iraq against US-British forces will be at most a nuisance – easily suppressed by the ruthless employment of massive firepower. And Israel will use the opportunity to deal with Syria and South Lebanon, and possibly with its Palestinian problem.
Chief’s comment: A Clancy scenario is the alternative that is REQUIRED if Jack Bauer isn’t sent in to do the job! Heh heh heh!