When the devil dislikes the stink of brimstone
Here’s the latest from one of the Chief’s favorite commentators, who uses the nomme de plume of Spengler.
It’s a bit like the devil disliking the stench of sulfur, but Iran’s leaders now complain that the United States has thrown the Middle East into chaos in order to reshape the region. That is a man-bites-camel story. With the exception of the late Yasser Arafat, no one has wielded the weapon of instability with greater skill than Iran. Israel’s disproportionate response to the July 12 Hezbollah provocation changed the rules of the game in the region. Whether the players have the presence of mind to exploit the new rules remains an open question.
He goes on to spell out the current state of affairs as it impacts the various players at the current game table:
IRAN:
“Israel is pushing the region into utter chaos,” warned the July 15 editorial in the Foreign Ministry daily Tehran Times, warning that America’s backing for Israel “will harm the whole world, from exacerbation of the global security situation to undermining the world economy.”…Iran now badly wants a ceasefire so that Hezbollah can claim a draw as a victory….”Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid-Reza Asefi said that the United States has thrown the region into chaos to reach its ultimate goal of the new Middle East,” again according to IRNA.
ISRAEL:
A few Israeli analysts, although evidently not the government of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, understand the game. “In a way, we’re playing an old Palestine Liberation Organization game, to precipitate regional instability and then try to bring in international intervention,” Israeli defense analyst Michael Oren told the New York Times on July 24. Oren, author of the standard history of the 1967 Arab-Israeli war, advocates an Israeli attack on Syrian armored divisions stationed on the Lebanese border.
Asefi and Oren understand the sea-change in the Middle East better than the US or Israeli government.
USA:
Washington’s best move would be an ultimatum to Tehran with a deadline for dismantling its nuclear-weapons program, followed by aerial attacks in the event of non-compliance. Rather than engage the regime of President Bashar al-Assad in Syria, Washington should take the opportunity to destabilize it. Rather than attempt to hold together its Frankenstein monster in Iraq, it should partition the country. Sunnis and Shi’ites already are fleeing mixed neighborhoods and agglomerating into sectarian strongholds, and a broader population exchange is the best formula to suppress bloodshed.
YES! What a breath of fresh air!
In other words, in pursuit of its own best interests, Washington should do precisely what the Iranian regime fears that it may do. Tehran’s paranoia, of course, runs far ahead of Washington’s limited imagination. US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is skating in tighter and tighter little circles attempting to limit the war. The US demand for a 48-hour halt in Israeli bombing runs in Lebanon to which Israel acquiesced expresses the delusional hope that Sunni Arab states can be enlisted to oppose Iran and Hezbollah.
Israel, in summary, remains in denial about the failure of its withdrawal policy since 2000, and Washington remains in denial about the absurdity of its plan to stabilize the Middle East through democracy. That gives Iran considerable wiggle room to press ahead from an inherently weakened position.
There’s more where this comes from – and is well worth a look for his analysis of the current fecklessness of American policy and tactics in the present mid-east environment. (SIGH.)