30-year weather forecast by Japan

Japan’s science ministry hopes to harness the power of a supercomputer called the Earth Simulator to deliver forecasts 30 years into the future.

This is just crazy. There is no way there is enough detailed data to allow this to succeed with any degree of reliability, especially to the degree that is being claimed.

Now the ministry is working on refining the simulation models, which are crucial to accurate projection.

The BEST models to date can’t get things sorted out properly pertaining to issues of global warming, cooling, or whatever. This is due to there being too many variable factors with too little validly “controlled” data. (Controlled data is data that is actually comparable, due to its being collected and processed in a way that is exactly controlled for uniformity of the collection conditions.)

The project is expected to cover the whole planet, producing forecasts for areas of the globe as small as two square miles.

This is totally insane! The Chief lives in the country in South Dakota on a “quarter” – 1/4 square mile. Having watched the weather here for years as a storm spotter – the claim that a computer in Japan is going to be able to make 30-year forecasts on that sort of scale beggars the imagination.

The only thing wierder that the scope of the claims being made by these ambitious Nipponese is the unquestioning seriousness with which it is being reported.