In recent weeks, media reports from both Iraq and Afghanistan have suggested the appearance of a slow evolution of the Islamist insurgents’ tactics in the direction of the battlefield deployment of larger mujahideen units that attack “harder” facilities. These attacks are not replacing small-unit attacks, ambushes, kidnappings, assassinations and suicide bombings in either country, but rather seem to be initial and tentative forays toward another stage of fighting.
There is of course more to be said about this concept, which broke down their concept into a staged plan, originally laid out by the leader of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, Abu Hajar Abd al-Aziz al-Muqrin. (NOTE: al-Muqrin was dispatched from this world in a fire-fight with Saudi security forces.)
Muqrin told his insurgent readers that the power of the US precluded any expectation of a quick victory. He wrote that the war would progress slowly through such phases as initial manpower mobilization, political work among the populace to establish trust and support, the accumulation of weaponry and other supplies, the establishment of bases around the country and especially in the mountains, the initiation of attacks on individuals and then a gradual intensification of the latter until a countrywide insurgency was under way.
When they get themselves into bigger units, they DO enter a new phase which can be referred to as “targets”. The real question is whether the West has the gumption to stand up against their determination, or whether things will reach the point where it’s a contest with the level of engagement and possible negative outcome as WW-II.
Hopefully we arn’t as dense as the Euros were in the 30’s (with the exception of Churchill and a few others crying in the wilderness), but given the current state of US politics, the Chief wouldn’t make any bets right now.