First, the positive outlook for the GOP on this bye-election eve:

Republicans Are Poised for Gains in Key Elections

Republicans appear positioned for strong results in three hard-fought elections Tuesday. But isolated, off-year contests aren’t always reliable indicators of what will happen in the wider federal and state races held in even-numbered years.

Democrats and Republicans are jostling to glean messages from voters in a race for a U.S. House seat in far northern New York, as well as from contests for governor in New Jersey and Virginia. Republicans, increasingly optimistic, say the contests foreshadow trouble for President Barack Obama and the Democratic Party’s ambitious agenda heading toward the 2010 congressional elections.

“We will be looking very closely at the results in these three races and reminding Democrats of the message they send about the agenda that they are forcing on American taxpayers,” said Paul Lindsay, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, which coordinates GOP House races.

It’ll be very interesting to see how these votes turn out…especially NY-23, and New Jersey.

At the same time, there is this recent polling result, which should give the GOP party leaders some pause:

Partisan Trends
Democrats Inch Up in Partisan ID during October, GOP Slips

For the third straight month, the number of Americans identifying themselves as Democrats inched up while the number of Republicans fell slightly.

Hmmm. On the eve of some potentially significant GOP gains, this other trend seems at first glance to be a bit contradictory.

Obviously something else is at work here….

What NY-23 Says About The GOP And Its Voters

THIS is interesting…it provides an local example that helps explain both of the above reports.

The race in New York’s 23rd Congressional District highlights the concerns many Republican voters have about their party leaders.

At a time when 73% of Republicans believe their party’s representatives in Congress have lost touch with the GOP base, 11 county leaders in upstate New York picked a nominee for Congress who supported the Democratic president’s stimulus package, his health care reform plan and “card check” legislation designed to make union organizing easier. All three items are overwhelmingly opposed by Republican voters – and even by Republicans in Congress.

The decision by county GOP leaders to nominate such a candidate seemed almost designed to provoke the party’s core voters, and it did.

A Conservative Party candidate, Doug Hoffman, entered the fray and picked up endorsements from many leading national Republicans.

Newt Gingrich, on the other hand, urged voters to stick with the party’s official nominee. He said a decision by local party leaders was good enough for him, but most Republican voters don’t have such confidence in the party leadership.

In spite of his obvious talents and ability, IMHO Gingrich has shown himself to be thoroughly in the country-club wing of the GOP that is…uncomfortable…if not hostile, to the GOP’s would-be grass-roots conservative base.   Once the inside initiates anoint their candidate, and the conservatives go out and support him/her, then they are supposed to fade back into the lawn until needed again for the next election cycle.

Been there.  Done that. 

“Ain’t gonna work on THAT farm no more!” increasingly seems to be the attitude of the potentially GOP conservative base, as it indicated even more strongly in this result:

73% of GOP Voters Say Congressional Republicans Have Lost Touch With Their Base

President Obama told an audience at a Democratic Party fundraiser Wednesday night that Republicans often “do what they’re told,” but GOP voters don’t think their legislators listen enough to them.

Just 15% of Republicans who plan to vote in 2012 state primaries say the party’s representatives in Congress have done a good job of representing Republican values.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 73% think Republicans in Congress have lost touch with GOP voters from throughout the nation. Twelve percent (12%) are undecided. These numbers are basically unchanged from a survey in late April.

Time will tell if the GOP leadership starts to get the picture or not.