Economy Recovering or Not so Fast?

Probably not…First the optimism:

Recovery Rally Rolls On

Bernanke, Data Boost Stocks

The markets received a rhetorical lift from Bernanke, who after giving a speech said, “the recession is very likely over at this point.”

“He’s a man who is very cautious in his commentary. He tends to really avoid extreme statements,” said Kenny. “If he’s saying we’re out of the recession, then we’re well out of the recession. This is the most positive he’s been.”

How solid is this? Apparently not too solid.

…Bernanke also warned that “it’s still going to feel like a very weak economy for some time.”

Meanwhile, on a less optimistic note, are these reports from across the big pond of some things that are contra-indicators of an incipient economic boostsomehow overlooked in the US government-affiliated mainstream media:

US credit shrinks at Great Depression rate prompting fears of double-dip recession

Professor Tim Congdon from International Monetary Research said US bank loans have fallen at an annual pace of almost 14pc in the three months to August (from $7,147bn to $6,886bn).

“There has been nothing like this in the USA since the 1930s,” he said. “The rapid destruction of money balances is madness.” The M3 “broad” money supply, watched as an early warning signal for the economy a year or so later, has been falling at a 5pc annual rate.

Similar concerns have been raised by David Rosenberg, chief strategist at Gluskin Sheff, who said that over the four weeks up to August 24, bank credit shrank at an “epic” 9pc annual pace, the M2 money supply shrank at 12.2pc and M1 shrank at 6.5pc.

“For the first time in the post-WW2 [Second World War] era, we have deflation in credit, wages and rents and, from our lens, this is a toxic brew,” he said.

And the point is?

US banks are cutting lending by around 1pc a month. A similar process is occurring in the eurozone, where private sector credit has been contracting and M3 has been flat for almost a year.

Mr Congdon said IMF chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn is wrong to argue that the history of financial crises shows that “speedy recovery” depends on “cleansing banks’ balance sheets of toxic assets”. “The message of all financial crises is that policy-makers’ priority must be to stop the quantity of money falling and, ideally, to get it rising again,” he said.

He predicted that the Federal Reserve and other central banks will be forced to engage in outright monetisation of government debt by next year, whatever they say now.

Debt monetisation is basically using newly created money to pay of previously existing debts. In other words, HIGH inflation.

Another more obscure sign that the U.S. and global economy both are all not operating up top speed, and will not be for a while yet:

Revealed: The ghost fleet of the recession

The biggest and most secretive gathering of ships in maritime history lies at anchor east of Singapore. Never before photographed, it is bigger than the U.S. and British navies combined but has no crew, no cargo and no destination – and is why your Christmas stocking may be on the light side this year.

You have to see this article to get a real feel for what they’re talking about, so take alook.

The photos of the laid-up ships looks like the D-Day invasion fleet, which impression is reinforced by satellite position location charts.

This is interesting, and the logic is inescapable…if the goods aren’t being shipped NOW, they won’t be in the stores for Christmas, and if they aren’t in the stores for Christmas, then obviously they won’t be sold. Doesn’t look too good for consumer demand. This CANNOT change…the orders haven’t been placed, and the ships are out of service as a result.

Worth noting once again that none of this is being currently covered in the US state-influenced Main Stream Media.